A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that from 24:00 on September 18, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened: gasoline will be reduced by 315 yuan per ton, diesel will be reduced by 300 yuan per ton, of which 92 gasoline will be reduced by 0.25 yuan per liter, 95 gasoline Decrease by 0.26 yuan per liter, and decrease by 0.26 yuan per liter for No. 0 diesel. According to the estimation of the 50L capacity of a general family car fuel tank, a full tank of 92 gasoline will save 12.5 yuan.

■Oil prices return to the era of 5 yuan, which will stimulate consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival

    According to the monitoring of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, the international oil prices have fallen sharply during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (September 4-September 17). On average, oil prices in London Brent and New York WTI dropped 9.29% from the previous price adjustment cycle. Affected by this, the retail prices of domestic gasoline and diesel have been reduced accordingly. Han Jingyuan, a senior analyst at Jinlianchuang Energy Department, said: “Take 95 gasoline as an example, the retail price of the whole country will return to the era of 5 yuan. In fact, based on the calculation of private cars, such a level, Consumption saving will play a more positive stimulus role."

■International oil prices have fallen sharply, and short-term oil prices will remain under pressure

    During the price adjustment cycle, long and short factors acted successively to influence oil prices to fluctuate sharply, with the single-day amplitude exceeding 5% at one time, and the relatively stable operation that lasted for more than three months was broken. The overseas new crown pneumonia epidemic continued to spread, the spread of the epidemic in India accelerated, the number of new cases in South America and some states in the United States remained high, and the epidemic in Europe rebounded, which suppressed the demand for crude oil; the peak season for traditional gasoline consumption in the United States ended with the end of Labor Day. Exacerbate expectations of weak demand. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of crude oil sold to Asia and the United States in October. This is the second consecutive month that Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of light crude oil sold to Asia. This move amplifies market concerns about sluggish crude oil demand.

    The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that in the short term, the epidemic will continue to spread overseas, hindering the recovery of the global economy and crude oil demand, and oil prices will continue to be under pressure. However, the current crude oil market production and inventory situation has been significantly improved compared with the period when the oil price fell off the cliff from March to April this year. The implementation rate of OPEC and its allies for reducing production in August was 102%. The tightening of supply brought about by large-scale production cuts was more significant. The meeting on September 17 reiterated that they would fully comply with the production reduction agreement; US crude oil inventories continued to decline, and current inventories are close to since the beginning of April. lowest. Therefore, it is unlikely that oil prices will continue to plummet again, but they will continue to maintain a weak operation until demand is significantly improved.

■Overview of oil price changes during the year: three up, four down, and eleven stranded

    In 2020, the domestic refined oil price adjustment has shown a pattern of "three ups, four downs, and eleven stranded". As of this price adjustment, gasoline prices have been reduced by 1,860 yuan per ton, and diesel prices have been reduced by 1,790 yuan per ton.