A brewing undercurrent in the Persian Gulf is quietly reshaping the future trajectory of the U.S. auto market. While Washington remains locked in heated disputes over import tariffs and emission standards, each oil tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz continues to push American gasoline prices to new heights.

On April 7, the average gasoline price in the U.S. exceeded $4.14 per gallon (approximately 28.38 yuan, equivalent to about 7.49 yuan per liter), reaching the highest level since 2022. Since late February, oil prices have surged by over 30%. For American consumers accustomed to "large-displacement, low-oil-price" models, this data serves as a stark warning. A once-dismissed issue now demands serious consideration: Is driving a fuel-powered car still cost-effective? Originally, the electric vehicle penetration rate in the U.S. auto market for the first quarter of 2026 had plummeted by half. However, as oil prices soar, the prevailing narrative that "EVs are more economical" has begun to gain traction in the U.S.

The realism of "saving 20000 yuan a year" and the idealism of "loving the roar of internal combustion engines and the driving experience of gasoline powered cars" will collide once again. From the perspective of Americans, it seems that the development of the situation further confirms the correctness of firmly promoting the transformation of electric vehicles across the ocean.

01Half cut electric cars are being 'sung' more often

When compiling market data in the United States, the automobile company found a sharp contrast by comparing it with the evaluations of local institutions.

2026 is not friendly to the US auto market, with new light vehicle sales plummeting by 14% year-on-year to 1.39 million units in March, marking the end of three consecutive years of year-on-year growth; The start of 2026 is particularly unfavorable for electric vehicles in the United States. Cox Automotive predicts that the sales of electric vehicles in the first quarter will be about 214000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 28%. Measured by the penetration rate of electric vehicles, it reached its peak of 10.5% before the end of the federal tax credit policy in the third quarter of 2025, while in the first quarter of 2026, it was only around 5% - a halving. The three major obstacles to the popularization of electric vehicles in the United States are the high upfront car purchase costs, uneven charging infrastructure, and the long-standing perception that oil prices are not as expensive. The reversal came quickly, as the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran not only raised global oil prices, but also had the potential to rewrite the structure of the US auto market. The Iran conflict continues to escalate, and the Strait of Hormuz, the "throat" of global oil transportation, is constantly threatened. Coltura Policy Director Rob Sargent bluntly stated that as long as the interruption of cross-strait shipping continues, oil prices will remain high. AAA data shows that the average gasoline price in the United States reached $4.14 per gallon on April 7th, compared to only $3.41 a month ago.

What does this mean for an ordinary American driver? The latest analysis from the Coltura organization provides an astonishing figure: an average driver who travels approximately 15000 miles (24000 kilometers) per year can save $1805 annually on fuel and maintenance by switching from a gasoline car to an electric one. If converted at the current exchange rate, it is approximately RMB 13000. If the average annual driving distance reaches 25000 miles (about 40000 kilometers, such as for residents in the Midwest with longer commuting distances), the annual savings can be as high as $3008, about 22000 yuan. In other words, the money saved from driving an electric car for a year is enough to buy the latest iPhone and a family trip to Disney. This account is calculated by Americans. For a long time, the mainstream view in the US automotive market has been that the US has one of the lowest oil prices in the world, coupled with its vast territory and developed highways, high displacement pickup trucks and SUVs are the true "American spirit". Even though China and Europe are vigorously shifting towards electrification, the United States can still take two completely different paths - continuing to embrace internal combustion engines and enjoying the roar of V8 engines. But the Iran conflict is tearing apart this dream. When the price of gasoline exceeds $4 per gallon, a fuel pickup truck with a fuel consumption of 12 liters per 100 kilometers burns nearly $0.5 in fuel for every mile it runs.

In contrast, even if electric vehicles are fully charged outside, the "electricity cost" per mile is only one-third to a quarter of that of gasoline vehicles. If charging is mainly done at home (Coltura's model assumes 80% charging at home), the gap becomes even more significant. There are two factors that contribute to the popularity and investment of electric vehicles: the long-term development plans of car companies and the impact of second-hand electric vehicles. The market is always the first to perceive changes in water temperature. Faced with the weak demand for electric vehicles, American car companies and dealers have begun a radical price war. J. According to data from D. Power and GlobalData, the average discount amount for electric vehicles in the United States in March was as high as $11258 (approximately RMB 77000), while the average discount for other models was only $3030 (approximately RMB 21000) - the discount for electric vehicles is nearly four times that of gasoline vehicles.

The Ford Mustang Mach-E electric SUV has a discount of $10000, and the F-150 Lightning combined discount can reach up to $16000; Honda offers a $10000 discount for the 2025 Prologue EV; Chevrolet Equinox EV RS can enjoy a cash discount of at least $8750; Modern Ioniq 5 and Ioniq 9 can also receive discounts of up to $6000 and $10000. Even Toyota, which has always been "aloof", is offering up to $5000 in cash discounts or $7000 in rental rewards for the newly launched bZ Woodland and C-HR electric vehicles. Dave Krist, Vice President of Toyota North America, gave a representative speech: "Currently, providing significant discounts on electric vehicles is to prepare for future growth in this niche market." Translated into plain language: "Selling electric vehicles at a loss now is to avoid being eliminated in the future. This is a big gamble. The bet is that oil prices will not fall quickly, the bet is that American consumers will eventually figure out the annual bill of one or two thousand yuan, and the bet is that the long-term trend of electrification is irreversible. In response to car companies using discounts to promote the growth of electric vehicles, second-hand electric vehicles have become a neglected "civilian route". This is because, even with discounts, the starting price of a brand new electric vehicle is still over $40000, which is still a considerable amount for many American families. But Coltura's policy director, Sargent, pointed out a fact that has been overlooked by mainstream public opinion: the second-hand electric vehicle market is making electric vehicles "extremely affordable". Actually, there are many people who really can't afford not buying an electric car now, "Sargent said. With the advancement of battery technology and the mainstream of home charging, although the resale value of second-hand electric vehicles is not as good as that of gasoline vehicles, for consumers with limited budgets, this precisely means that they can buy an electric vehicle with decent condition at an extremely low price.

In the United States, a three-year-old used Tesla Model 3 can already be priced below $25000, while a similarly aged used Toyota Camry is even more expensive. If we include the annual savings of $1800 in fuel and maintenance costs, the total cost difference for holding for five years is even more astonishing. Surrender "is only a matter of time before the transition to electric vehicles, and it will not be smooth sailing in both China and the United States. In the comments section of the graphic and video platforms of the Automobile Commune, there are always people shouting "Electric cars are toys, they are old men's music without technical content" or "If you have gasoline cars, don't buy electric cars".

What about the United States? A year ago, countless analysts shouted that "the turning point for electric vehicles in the United States has arrived", believing that with the delivery of Tesla Cybertruck and the acceleration of traditional car companies' electrification transformation, the United States will quickly catch up with China's pace. When the penetration rate of electric vehicles collapsed in the first quarter, many gasoline car fans happily left comments to "slap their face". The Trump administration is actively slowing down the transition to electrification - abolishing the $7500 electric vehicle tax credit, challenging California's 2035 zero emissions mandate, promoting regulations favorable to fossil fuels, and pushing favorable public opinion for fuel vehicles to its peak. However, it was Trump who returned with a "Middle East punch" and completely restored the momentum of gasoline cars to their original form. As J ü rgen Ries, Global Head of Automotive and Mobility at Accenture, said, "A complete departure from electric mobility is not advisable because the fundamental trend towards electrification still exists." The Iran conflict will eventually subside, and oil prices may also fall. But American consumers have already experienced the pain of high oil prices, and this pain will not easily disappear. Once they start seriously calculating the cost of owning electric vehicles, once charging infrastructure is further improved, and once more affordable electric vehicles are launched - the US market surrenders to electric vehicles - it's only a matter of time.

Coltura's warning is worth pondering for every American: 'We will surrender our leadership position, and the result will be millions of Americans paying exorbitant fees for fuel.' The halving of electric vehicle penetration from 10.5% to 5% is only a temporary pain. And the breakthrough of oil prices above $4 is the alarm clock that truly awakens American consumers from their "V8 nostalgia". When saving 20000 RMB per year becomes a tangible reality, when used electric cars are cheaper than gasoline used cars, and when every refueling becomes a "painful" experience - Americans will vote with their wallets. History does not simply repeat itself, but always carries similar rhymes. Once, two oil crises allowed Japanese fuel-efficient small cars to capture the US market; Today, the Iran conflict may become a real turning point for the popularization of electric vehicles in the United States. However, this time, the target of "surrender" is not from Japan, but from Silicon Valley, Detroit, and even Beijing and Shanghai - that is a brand new race belonging to the electric age.