Pure electricity, plug-in hybrid, and extended range are likely to dominate the world in the future

Last year, in an article I wrote, I made a judgment at the beginning. The supporting evidence behind it is partly due to witnessing traditional fuel vehicles collapsing faster than imagined; On the other hand, we have seen the rapid rise of cumulative sales and market share of plug-in hybrid and extended range vehicles, as well as the gradual slowdown of pure electric expansion.

Excuse me, is there a future?

But since entering this year, the plot seems to have not developed in the expected direction.

Taking May as an example, based on the terminal report released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles reached 754000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.7% and a month on month increase of 4.4%.

In contrast, plug-in hybrids only had 341000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.1% and a month on month increase of 6.5%. On the other hand, in terms of range extension, wholesale sales reached 122000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% and a month on month increase of 29.4%.

In terms of corresponding share, pure electric accounts for 62.5%, plug-in hybrid accounts for 27.7%, and extended range accounts for 9.8%.

The goal of 'dividing the world into three parts' is still far away, without exaggeration or darkness. At the same time, in terms of year-on-year growth, it is evident that the highly popular trend of mixed use last year has gradually slowed down.

Last week's topic selection meeting raised many questions, such as "Is plug-in hybrid no longer fragrant?" and even more seriously, "Have we overestimated the terminal demand hidden in plug-in hybrid? Is the future of plug-in hybrid technology as a route as bright as imagined

The following section attempts to elaborate on my views.

01 "Plug in hybrid car owner's next car is pure electric"

Why has the year-on-year growth rate of wholesale sales for plug-in hybrids slowed down significantly this year?

In my opinion, the fundamental reason is still due to the mass market, where "hot selling" pure electric models are emerging like a tide. Small car enthusiasts like Geely Xingyuan and BYD Seagull are undoubtedly engaged in crazy harvesting at the terminal. In the high-end market, extended range products are more sought after. In addition, traditional fuel vehicles are engaging in a crazy price war.

Excuse me, is there a future?

Inserting and mixing in the middle, it's like 'being angry at both ends'.

Last week's topic selection meeting interviewed two colleagues from the company who purchased the Lynk&Co 08. In their annual driving mileage of nearly 20000 kilometers, the proportion of using pure electric mode exceeds 80%, while the proportion of using hybrid mode is only 20%. Even one of my colleagues couldn't install a private stake at home.

Taking advantage of the situation, I couldn't help but ask, "Why didn't I just choose a pure electric model at that time

The answers I received were all, 'I still have some range anxiety, and I think having a fuel tank for long-distance travel would be more reassuring.' And when I continued to ask, 'If I were to change cars, would I still choose plug-in hybrid models?' Without exception, they all fell into contemplation.

In fact, based on the author's actual research, with the increasingly perfect national charging network and the mature product strength of pure electric vehicles, the subheading in this paragraph is becoming a common phenomenon, and more and more plug-in hybrid car owners are starting to "switch sides".

Coincidentally, looking towards the high-end market, thanks to the support of large batteries and ultra fast charging, the disadvantage of high energy consumption in the feed mode of extended range vehicles has been greatly weakened.

Excuse me, is there a future?

Compared to plug-in hybrid models, its cost advantage is further highlighted, coupled with the leading role of an ideal and innovative leader in seizing user minds, this technology route has a strong momentum of becoming "mainstream".

And according to the product plans of various companies this year, pure electric new cars located in this sector will also experience a "surge" in popularity. For example, players such as Xiaomi YU7, Ideal i8, Ledao L90, Xiaopeng G7, etc. are all eagerly preparing to enter and harvest.

It is not difficult to understand the slowdown in the year-on-year growth rate of plug-in hybrids precisely based on such a large environment.

Moreover, it should be noted that during the same period last year, it coincided with the hottest stage of related models under the "Great Demon King" BYD. But since the beginning of this year, due to various obstacles, the growth rate of the group's sales of plug-in hybrid products has not been as optimistic as imagined.

Taking May as an example, the sales of pure electric passenger vehicles were 204000 yuan, while the sales of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 173000 yuan, widening the gap to over 30000 yuan.

From this perspective, BYD's status undoubtedly reflects the overall situation of the market once again.

Upon seeing this, many readers will surely be curious, "If we continue to develop according to the current trend, where will the trend of plug-in mixing go? Will it experience a brief low point and then rise again? Or will it completely slow down

Personally, I think it will be closer to a midpoint. Indeed, with the advent of the era of electrification, plug-in hybrids have their own significance, but it is difficult to achieve a "three-way divide" with pure electricity and extended range.

02 Pure electric home, extended range high-end, plug-in hybrid supplement

Recently, I have been thinking about a new question: "If China's new energy market cannot achieve a three-way split, what kind of final pattern will it form

Excuse me, is there a future?

At present, the more convincing answer is: "With the passage of time and the development of technology, the mass market may form a situation where pure electricity dominates and plug-in hybrid serves as a supplement; in the high-end market, extended range will be a force that cannot be ignored in the long run. At the same time, with the support of a mature energy supplement system, the plate of pure electricity will gradually expand, and plug-in hybrid will also play a supplementary role

As for many years later, after going through rounds of baptism, the overall steady-state sales share, boldly guessing the relationship between pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended range, may continue to approach "60%, 20%, 20%" or even "70%, 15%, 15%".

Of course, the premise for all the above analyses to be implemented is that traditional fuel vehicles have defended their positions and have been thoroughly attacked and conquered by new energy vehicles.

However, we are still far away from this node at the moment.

In May, although the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a historic high, it was only 52.9%. In other words, the "oil and electricity war" in the Chinese car market is still in a fierce and anxious stage of fighting back and forth.

However, objectively speaking, it should not be a problem for this year's data to break through the 60% mark in a single month.

After all, with the emergence of independent traditional giants like BYD, Geely, and Chery, a new round of "profit giving momentum" has begun; In addition, new forces such as Xiaomi, HarmonyOS, and "Wei Xiaoli" have started to launch heavyweight promotions; After many joint venture brands turned around, they entered the long-awaited harvest period, and new energy vehicles are showing explosive momentum from the product end to the volume end. At present, we have already won the 'Crossing the River Campaign'.

Excuse me, is there a future?

It is only a matter of time before we can boost sales and usher in greater qualitative changes.

In this process, in addition to internal benign competition, the main task of pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended range vehicles is to aim at traditional fuel vehicles with a unified gun and fully disintegrate those truly "stubborn" ones.

As for the protagonist of today's article, it must be admitted that whether you like it or not, it still plays the role of a "promoter" of electrification transformation in the Chinese car market.

So returning to the question at the beginning, if you insist on exploring whether there is a future for mixing and weaving, you can only say that you should not be too impatient to label it as "negative".

The truth is still the same, "There is no single technological route that can dominate the Chinese car market

The diverse driving scenarios, vast driving environments, differences in driving between domestic and overseas markets, and the driving mentality of end users all determine the "product richness" of the entire market. Nowadays, some people may think that mixing and pasting is not good anymore, but it still exists and is reasonable, and it is constantly iterating and improving.

As witnesses, we should actually pay more attention to when new energy vehicles will usher in a "total attack" on traditional fuel vehicles after winning the "Crossing the Yangtze River Campaign". Next year, the year after, and the year after?

In fact, everything is undergoing changes amidst the surging undercurrents. To stay at the table, one must accurately smell the wind and quickly adjust and follow it.

Running blindly blindfolded will only face an abyss of ten thousand feet